第二届未来大气科学论坛

The impacts of a tropical cyclone after landfall depend not only on storm intensity but also on the size and structure of the wind field. Hence, a simple predictive model for the wind field after landfall has significant potential value. Existing theories for wind structure and size over the ocean are tested against idealized landfall experiments. Structure theory captures the response of the low-level wind field to different types of idealized landfalls, given the intensity and size response. Storm size, modeled to follow the ratio of simulated time-dependent storm intensity to the Coriolis parameter, can generally predict the transient response of the storm gale wind radii to inland surface forcings, particularly for at least moderate surface roughening regardless of the level of drying. The above results yield a theoretical model that can predict the full tangential wind field response to idealized landfalls. Furthermore, this theoretical model is experimentally applied to the real-world landfall study, as little work has been done to comprehensively evaluate the forecast model performance on the TC low-level wind field over land due to the lack of dense in-situ observations. In this work, key input parameters for the theoretical model are generated from multiple observational datasets to form an observation-based, theory-driven inland TC wind field dataset, with which we evaluate the performance of the Tropical Atlantic version of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's System for High‐resolution prediction on Earth‐to‐Local Domains on six landfalling storms during the 2020-2022 hurricane season. The results show promising performance of the T-SHiELD inland wind field and suggest that the observation-based, theory-driven post-landfall TC wind profile is a practical approach to describing the post-landfall TC wind field in the real world.
 

登陆台风,理想实验,风场模型