第一届未来大气科学论坛

The sea surface cooling induced by the passage of tropical cyclones (TCs) includes both local and basin-scale effects. The basin-scale climatological impacts of TC-induced cooling effects (TCCEs), and the climatological variability of TCCEs in the NWP, are still poorly understood. In this study, we find a long-term increase of 0.047°C per decade, driven primarily by strong TCs (0.067°C/decade). Ocean Coupled Potential Intensity (OCPI) is identified as the key environmental factor explaining TCCE variability, accounting for 38% of the trend in TCCEs from all TCs, 44% from strong TCs, and 33% from weak TCs. Our analysis shows that global mean sea surface temperature warming is the primary driver of long-term changes in OCPI, contributing 57% of the variability, with natural variability accounting for the remaining 43%.
 

tropical cyclone, cold wake, potential intensity