24th Pacific Science Congress (PSC-24)

Global warming has intensified convective heating over the western Pacific (WP) in spring, while surface temperature in the Middle East (ME) has risen at an accelerated pace. Using ERA5 reanalysis data and model sensitivity experiments, we uncover a dynamic linkage between the two phenomena: enhanced convection over the WP drives hotter and drier conditions in the ME. This teleconnection arises as WP convection induces anticyclonic anomalies in the upper-middle troposphere over the Iranian and Tibetan plateaus, which enhance subsidence, suppress cloud formation, and increase solar radiation over the ME, thereby amplifying heat extremes in the region. An evaluation of fifty CMIP6 models reveals that the ensemble mean successfully reproduces the observed WP–ME teleconnection. Crucially, the fidelity of this simulation hinges on the accurate representation of anomalous Rossby wave patterns over South and East Asia, which generate high-pressure anomalies over the ME. For future climate, however, models project a weakening WP–ME teleconnection, driven primarily by an eastward shift of Rossby waves and the emergence of low-pressure anomalies over the ME. These findings provide critical insights into the mechanisms linking WP convection to ME climate extremes and underscore the vulnerability of this teleconnection to ongoing climate change.
 

CMIP6,middle east climate,Western Pacific convection