24th Pacific Science Congress (PSC-24)

Efficient energy utilization and clean electricity incentives can be crucial to achieving China’s CO2 peak by 2030. To explore a coordinated development pathway encompassing energy utilization, economic growth, and carbon mitigations, this study initially construct-ed the China Integrated CO2 Emission Management (CICEM) model utilizing input-output analysis, energy flow analysis, and material flow analysis methodologies; this model can investigate low-carbon sustainable development roadmap adopting dynamic simulation. The findings demonstrate that enhancing energy incentive mechanisms enables the at-tainment of carbon peaking by 2027, with such measures exhibiting heightened efficacy in post-peak years and heterogeneity. Enhanced energy efficiency significantly stimulates economic development, whereas electricity generation structural optimization amplifies systemic carbon mitigation effects; integrated incentives can drive energy system upgrades that elevate electrification rates to approximately 40% under optimized scenario. However, further upgrading on the energy structure is constrained by traditional heavy industries in which the electricity cannot entirely replace coal in the short term. Industrial restructuring can be accomplished with fostering steady growth in high-end manufacturing and service industries. The CICEM model developed in this paper provides methodology significance, as well as practical insights for proposing future  policies for reducing CO2 emissions and achieving high-quality economic development.