24th Pacific Science Congress (PSC-24)

The Northeast China Cold Vortex (NECV) exerts a lasting impact on local weather. How, then, does it affect rainfed agriculture in Northeast China? In this study, we analyzed agro-meteorological disasters of major crop (maize and rice) associated with the NECV during 1981–2021, integrating long-term meteorological, agricultural, and disaster records across the three northeastern provinces of China. The results show that NECVs with distinct trajectories exhibit substantial differences in the magnitude and spatial extent of their temperature and precipitation impacts, reflecting the heterogeneous nature of cold vortex–induced climatic effects across Northeast China. In years with frequent occurrences of the NECV, combined effects of chilling injury and waterlogging led to significant yield reductions in maize. The impacts are particularly pronounced in western Heilongjiang and the central–northern regions of Jilin and Liaoning provinces. Furthermore, by incorporating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components, a comprehensive risk assessment framework was developed to evaluate NECV-induced chilling risks—specifically, sterile-type chilling during the booting and heading stages of rice, and delayed-type chilling affecting maize and rice. The results provide a scientific foundation and methodological framework for improving regional agricultural risk assessment, early warning, and disaster mitigation under the influence of the NECV.

agro-meteorological disasters;crop yield variability;Northeast China Cold Vortex