24th Pacific Science Congress (PSC-24)

Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) developed the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) as a flexible tool designed to support the development of scenarios and models of desirable futures for people and nature. The NFF encompass multiple value perspectives regarding nature, allowing users to develop scenarios in a creative and relevant manner fitting to their context. Using the NFF, our project (IAM-B) is developing an integrated assessment model which can consider biodiversity, climate change, and other socio-economic drivers in an integrated manner for future scenario analysis, and quantitatively estimate the impacts of response options for climate change mitigation and adaptation, and biodiversity conservation and restoration under different future scenarios in Japan. The project consists of five themes: Theme 1 – Development of an integrated assessment model of a social-ecological system; Theme 2 – Development of future scenarios and combination of response options; Theme 3 – Interaction between value-behavior-culture and biodiversity; Theme 4 – National scale scenario analysis by the integrated assessment model and its social application; and Theme 5 – Local scale scenario analysis by the integrated assessment model and its social application. My talk presents project’s major outputs relevant to this session with some policy implications.
 

Depopulation, indirect drivers, land use change, ecosystem services