The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences (XMAS 2025)

1058 / 2024-09-20 10:08:40

ENSO Modulating Tropical Cyclone Geneses in Fall and Winter Seasons over the South China Sea

tropical cyclone, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the South China Sea, genesis potential index, Walker Cell

Understanding the Tropical Cyclone (TC) geneses is essential to prevent associated disasters in Asian countries. The TC geneses are strongly modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the South China Sea (SCS). However, the physical processes of such modulation in the boreal fall and winter seasons remain unclear. This study shows that the TC geneses are much higher over the SCS in late fall and early winter (October to December) during the developing year of La Niña than that of El Niño. The mid-level relative humidity is the most critical factor contributing to the high genesis potential index (GPI) of TC. The thermodynamic environmental factors are tele-connected with the ENSO. During an El Niño event, the tropical eastern-central Pacific warming weakens the Walker Cell, leading to an anomalous descending motion and suppressed convection over the western North Pacific. These induce negative anomalies of mid-level relative humidity that suppress TC geneses. Conversely, a La Niña event provides favorable large-scale conditions, including anomalous low-troposphere cyclone wind and positive low-level relative vorticity, enhanced convection, and anomalous mid-troposphere relative humidity over the SCS. These result in higher GPI to support TC geneses in fall and winter in La Niña years. Our research enhances understanding of the ENSO influence on the TC geneses and benefits the interannual predictions.