The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences (XMAS 2025)

898 / 2024-09-19 19:02:05

Decreasing global tropical cyclone frequency in CMIP6 historical simulations

Global tropical cyclones;,Global warming,CMIP6 histroical simulaitons

The impact of anthropogenic global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency remains a challenging issue, partly due to a relatively short period of reliable observational TC records and inconsistencies in climate model simula tions. Using TC detection from 20 CMIP6 historical simulations, we show that the majority (75%) of these models show a decrease in global- scale TC frequency from 1850 to 2014. We demonstrated that this result is largely explained by weakened mid- tropospheric upward motion in CMIP6 models over the Pacific and Atlantic main development regions. The reduced upward motion is due to a zonal circulation adjustment and shifts in Intertropical Conver gence Zone in response to global warming. In the South Indian Ocean, reduced TC frequency is mainly due to the decreased survival rate of TC seeds because of an increased saturation deficit in a warming climate. Our analysis highlights global warming’s potential impact on the historical decrease in global TC frequency.