Presentation Details
Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems
ID：1060
View Protection：ATTENDEE
Updated Time：2024-10-13 19:39:32 Hits：1115
Oral Presentation
Start Time：2025-01-17 09:30（Asia/Shanghai）
Duration：15min
Session：S55 Session 55-Coastal Zone Evolution and Tipping Process »
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Abstract
Avalanches are sudden, destructive, and extremely difficult to forecast natural disasters that can result in numerous fatalities and extensive property damage. Given the immense danger posed by avalanches, there is a significant amount of attention paid to accurately predicting these events. We investigate the predictability of large avalanches in a class of self-organizing systems, which change their internal structure or function in response to external circumstances by manipulating or organizing other elements of the same system. Here, we propose a practical relaxation time to replace a traditional recovery time, and importantly, the relaxation time does not require the removal of part of the resources (perturb state variables) in the environment. This work provides examples of the forest fire model and sandpile model as self-organizing systems in which the relaxation time successfully predicts the onset of large avalanches. Furthermore, the relaxation time can show a consistent with the increasing trend in both oscillatory and non-oscillatory bifurcations, suggesting that the relaxation time is more universal than traditional indirect metrics such as the variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function. We aim to identify early warning signals before the onset of large avalanches and provide scientific evidence and significant information for managers to formulate mitigation countermeasures and strategic decisions.
Keywords
complex systems,critical transitions,Early warning signals,the relaxation time
Speaker
Chunhua Zeng
Professor Kunming University of Science and TechnologySubmission Author
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Important Date
-
Conference Date
Jan 13
2025
toJan 17
2025
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Sep 27 2024
Draft paper submission deadline
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Feb 17 2025
Registration deadline
Sponsored By
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University
Organized By
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China
Contact Information
- Kejing GU
- xm******@xmu.edu.cn
- +86*********
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