The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences (XMAS 2025)

Upwelling-induced productivity in the Arabian Sea infers an out-of-phase relation between the Indian summer monsoon and Northern Hemisphere summer insolation at the precession band but an in-phase relation at the obliquity band. These records contrast speleothem oxygen records showing an in-phase relation between the monsoon and summer insolation in two bands, leaving the driving mechanism for the Indian summer monsoon still unknown. Here we use an isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model, showing that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and water isotopes respond directly to Northern Hemisphere summer insolation in two bands. This contrasts with the Arabian Sea upwelling which is weakened at precessional minimum but strengthened at obliquity maximum by a stronger northward shift of the ISM wind due to the stronger summer insolation at precessional minimum compared with obliquity maximum. This paper resolves the longstanding question, supporting the Northern Hemisphere-driving mechanism for the Indian summer monsoon at orbital timescale.

orbital scale, Indian summer monsoon, Arabian