The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences (XMAS 2025)

As the Arctic sea ice has retreated continually and the Arctic shipping routes have increasing transport efficiency in international trade, the number of vessels through which is surging. However, the carbon emissions generated by these ships pose a threat to the environment. Therefore, quantifying the current and future carbon emissions of maritime shipping is crucial for the Arctic environment. Due to the influence of economic, political, environmental, and operational factors on shipping emissions, there is limited research on systematic estimates of shipping carbon emissions. This paper proposed a prediction of the amount and spatial distribution changes of carbon emissions of Arctic shipping routes, based on trade forecasts under multiple scenarios, with the consideration of the various friction coefficients of different shipping routes in the global shipping network. The anticipated results are, locally within the Arctic shipping routes, the total shipping carbon emissions in 2100 will increase significantly in comparison to current levels. However, the opening of the Arctic shipping routes may help reduce maritime carbon emissions globally. This conclusion can provide valuable insights for policymakers in their decision-making processes for emission reduction.
 

climate change, Arctic, carbon emissions, shipping network